In "Bearclaws," we analyze specific occurrences and traits of covert action cases involving Putin's administration's complimentary kinetic and non-kinetic (disinformation) operations and methods. We view these as tools of statecraft and strategic messaging that the post-Soviet intelligence services employ to support the stability of the regime and its objectives in both domestic and international affairs.
This project is dedicated to a closer scrutiny of the nature and outcomes of Russia’s post-Soviet targeted killing program as a multipurpose policy and statecraft instrument for political signaling aimed at a range of domestic and foreign audiences. The project focuses on Putin’s regime’s utilization of covert action and clandestine activities against opponents at home and abroad as a public strategic messaging tool for communicating intent and resolve in a near-peer competition context.
Our project addresses the following research questions: 1) how intelligible and credible is the belligerent/warning public messaging in terms of intent to respective intended recipients (i.e., internal political opponents and investigative journalists and whistleblowers), 2) how do these audiences interpret these violent “acts of admonition” on the personal and/or group levels, and 3) how do they react to these incidents in terms of public (online) and offline responses?
The results of this study could prompt the evolution of public and online, as well as personal offline, patterns of behaviors and activity that are aimed at regime’s monitoring evasion and deception and improved patterns of personal and local communities’ online and offline security protocols.
Finish and publish the project’s white paper.
Collect additional OSINT text and image data for analysis to supplement the existing database features related to Russian authorities public messaging on specific cases.
Deliver a visualization for “Bearclaws Geography” tool (a complimentary aid to the white paper that aimed to aid academic researchers, journalists and support civil society representatives).
Publish a brief article in an online professional journal.
Publish a peer-reviewed article in a professional intelligence / IR related academic journal.
Post-Soviet kinetic and non-kinetic activities expertise - you will familiarize with the history of Russian covert action post-2000.
OSINT collection techniques - you will be exposed to a range of OSINT collection techniques that will enable you to pursue further analysis.
Applicable analytical approaches - you will learn how to implement applicable structured analytical techniques suitable for data interpretation.
Qualitative analysis methods - you will familiarize with applicable qualitative methods and tools for analysis of collected data.